Occam’s Razor by Avinash Kaushik

If you are on the web, or do Web Analysis, it is a real crime if you don’t tap into the reams and reams of competitive intelligence data that is available online. It is a core component of a successful Web Analytics 2.0 strategy.

A lot has changed even in the last six months in the world of competitive intelligence, this post, the first of three, attempts to share the kinds of analysis you can do in the area of Search, Websites, Display and Ads (content networks).

In the past I have written about the why, what & how to choose Competitive Intelligence Tools [ComScore, Alexa, HitWise, Compete etc]. That was followed by a lovely article on Metrics, Tips & Best Practices in doing competitive intelligence analysis. Finally there was some fun stuff with Microsoft AdCenter Labs in the Advanced Web Analytics post.

But until now not Google.

The reason was that the tools that Google provided were cool but I was unsure how they provided actionable insights. [And I am the Analytics Evangelist for Google!]

That changed recently with a group of tools the provide actionable trends and insights. My hope with these posts is to share what these tools do that I like, but that’s 20%. 80% of my hope is to teach you how to think, and what you can do regardless of what tool you use.

Here’s the first one: Google Trends for Websites .

First thing you can see in the tool: Daily Unique Visitors. And if you are logged in then you see the actual number. And if you eyeball the graph you’ll see the trend, going down over time in the above case and rising like the phoenix in July!

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Long time readers of this blog know that Daily Unique Visitors is not a metric I am too fond of, especially if you are using a web analytics tool on your website. If you want to use a daily metric as a KPI then use Daily Visits (sessions), not Daily Unique Visitors which is sub optimal for a number of reasons. For competitive intelligence it matters less, you are comparing apples to apple.
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It is sad that most people leave the tool with the above graph, for themselves of their competitors. But there’s more. Here are two other things you can use.

Do this simple thing first, switch the geography setting to All Regions and here you go dear, here’s how your competitor is doing internationally:

Looks like WebTrends gets half of its traffic internationally, and it contributes enough to actually reduce the slope of the curve (the one in the US is steeper, reflecting a worse situation in the US).

[sidebar]
Since this will come up in many people’s mind, the Trends data for any site, and obviously not for www.webtrends.com (!), is Not from Google Analytics. The GA team has said in a recent post: “Google Analytics doesn’t share individual, site-level information with Google Trends for Websites or Google Ad Planner.” Read more context on the team’s official blog.

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So you wonder, what’s the make up of the international markets? Here you go. . . .

The thing to do is correlate this with other pieces of data you have. For example I notice that India has actually become #2 referrer on my blog as well so it is interesting that WebTrends is seeing the same, well, trend. So it seems to be inline with expectations.

You might have other sources of data that you can correlate this with. For example you could look at that data just by the US and match it up with where your competitor has retail box stores, so maybe you can exploit a gap there.

And finally you get sites that Visitors who go to your competition visit, and top search terms they use. . . .

This is getting to know a few different things, mostly around the “persona” and “preferences” of the kinds of Visitors who go to a site. The bigger the site the most interesting this data is (especially when there are more keywords filled out in the Also Searched For part above).

As I look at the data I am very surprised that there is such a overlap between ClickTracks and WebTrends visitors. I would have expected Omniture to be higher in the list. It raises a few questions:

See how that list is making me think about the “persona” and “preferences” for www.webtrends.com visitors? Do that for your competition, there is a wealth of insights (questions you should be asking) in the data.

As you might have guessed by now, all of the above was just foreplay (very important for a higher climax!).

Measuring individual sites (yours or competitor) is good but the real fun in this is comparing trends. That will give you the key context you need to make even more sense of this competitive data.

So I did exactly that. . . .

Ahhh…. sweet sweet data!

Don’t focus on the actual numbers (you’ll notice I say this a lot in this post). You want to compare the trends and each line gives context to the other two. That is deeply meaningful.

So what does it show?

WebTrends was rising like a phoenix in the US in July 2008 but Omniture seems to be rising like a …. hmm …. what’s a bird that is native to Utah? Can’t think of one. But I am sure there is a good one.

Knowing that there is a general spike in the industry that is causing an uptick gives me a new benchmark to compare my own performance. If I had sunk in $5 million in marketing campaigns, as WT or Core, then this graph also gives me food for thought: Were my marketing campaigns responsible for the spike in visitors, or was it Omniture’s campaigns that just caused a industry wide halo effect?

Also what the heck did Omniture do to cause that massive rise in traffic between end of dec 2007 and Feb 2008? Whatever they did seems to have put them on a new curve and they seems to have stayed on it since then.

Good Marketers (and great Analysts) show their true mettle by answering those questions, and then using the answer as information to optimize their own marketing strategies.

Here is one another important question the above graph raises:

For starters they can use their own tools, which are actually pretty good. : )

Did you see all that in three lines on a competitive intelligence graph?

That brings me to a very important recommendation: Doing competitive intelligence analysis without knowing enough context about your competitive space, your general ecosystem, is like going to play a football game naked. Won’t lead to a great outcome for you (even if you paid a ton of money for your players - tools :)).

I can make better sense of those lines because of what I know of the ecosystem, then the visitor behavior screams out the insights.

Last bit of insights you can look for: Are there strengths of my competitors that I can benefit from, are there weaknesses that I can exploit?

The Also Visited report can help a bit.

You can look at this report from the perspective of any site, I am going to look at the data from the perspective of Omniture.

Some of the above is hardly surprising, #1 and #4 for example.

But others are quite interesting.

Omniture’s worldwide series of summits are #2 in the list, and quite a nice amount of traffic at that. Since they are essentially Omniture “propaganda” (sorry Matt), it is great to see that it is effective. It raises the question, do the summits and CoreMetrics and WebTrends do give them a similar share of voice?

I am sure Omniture, WebTrends and CoreMetrics use # of attendees to measure success of their summits. How about using the above to measure success as well? Holistic impact measurement baby!

Here’s another data point that is noteworthy. Both CoreMetrics and Omniture seem to benefit from a big overlap with webanalyticsassociation.org. Why not WebTrends? One of the oldest members of the WAA community and a early founder. Is the WAA biased and sends more traffic to the other two and not WT? Why don’t WebTrends visitors have any overlap with those that visit waa.org? Cause for concern and investigation.

Please try it with different perspectives using the drop down immediately above the report, it can be insightful. Here’s an example of that report and comparison for www.lowes.com and www.homedepot.com. . . .

See the #1 for Lowes? Scary!

Also notice the commonalities between the two and the differences. Each of that is a set of information you can use to your advantage.

Had fun? I want to point out that my hope was less to get you to use Google Trends for Websites, more to teach you how to think as you approach competitive intelligence data. I hope you learned something.

And to the CMO’s of Omniture, WebTrends & CoreMetrics: Analysis like this is expensive! If you found value in this analysis by a expensive Analyst :), please make a donation to the two charities this blog supports (Doctors Without Borders, The Smile Train). Thanks!

Lastly, two important questions (probably on your mind):

#1: Is this data from Google any good?

You know me so well, great question!

For me any source of data is only as good as understanding exactly how it is captured. Hence this link at the start of this blog post: Competitive Intelligence Tools.

Google has publicly stated that it uses multiple sources of data it has access to in order to provide the data you see in Trends. Please check out “Information for Website Owners “.

My personal perspective is that as currently Google is used a decent amount in terms of its products and services which means that it has aggregated permission based non-PII (personally identifiable information) that is useful. The sample size also is favorably positioned compared to other options adding to its usefulness.

It is important to know that each data source has a natural bias.

Panel based measurements use a very small sample of people, capture their browsing behavior using “monitoring software” which means they can give deeper information on a few widely used sites.

ISP based measurements typically have much larger sample sizes but shallower site level data.

Likewise Google’s data, which is a mix of sources, probably has a “searcher’s bias”, i.e. people who use search engines.

Educate yourself and make the optimal decision for your case.

#2: Does this type of product from Google mean the end of Alexa, Nielsen, Compete, HitWise, ComScore?

Hardly.

Each tool provides something interesting of value. Some might become less relevant than others, but I can’t imagine any scenario where there won’t be anything but robust competition.

Here’s how I bucket them by value:

If it is of some value let me do my own personal quick walk thru of the tools (which will also reveal any bias I have).

Alexa was useful in the past but it is a less than optimal source for anything now. Ever since Compete showed up there is no need to use Alexa because compete data is on a bigger sample set, using multiple sources and more accurate. Yes it does not rank but really at the end of the day do you want a rank or better data?

Both Nielsen and ComScore have been under a heavy threat for some time because of the way they collect data (not from other companies!). Panel based measurement using “monitoring software” poses a sampling and population bias that has become much more of a challenge as the web has grown massively and become more rich / fluid / web 2.0.

Compete and HitWise are both ISP based services and frequent readers of this blog know that I am quite fond of them. Until recently when I lost access to Compete I used it all the time here and in my presentations because I think it has probably the most rich set of data sources (ISP, surveys, “monitoring software”, even panels). If you have money to spend on competitive intelligence (and you should) then HitWise with its ISP based data is great source (with one of the largest sample of users in its database).

To help you think here’s a metaphor for Panel and ISP based data:

I think of Panel Based services services as the USA Today method. ISP based as the YouTube method. Not absolutely perfect, but a significantly better signal to noise ratio.

Google’s data is perhaps like ISP data in the sense that it is based on clicks.

I expect Nielsen and ComScore to radically evolve their data capture mechanisms, which would enhance what they provide today (deep site behavior data). Even today if your site gets more than five million unique visitors a month you can use panel based data with some confidence.

I tend to use Compete because it has more metrics and reports, even the free version. And I use it to index against what Google might be providing. Like this:

Long term I confidently expect most tools to thrive and improve. Including Google’s.

[sidebar]
This goes without saying but no tool will actually show you really good data about your blog. In most cases if you don’t get more than 50,000 visits a month even the wrong data won’t be right. Just a quick tip.
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In the next two posts in this series:

• Google Ad Planner (Published!)
• Google Insights for Search (Published!)

Meanwhile I would love to have your feedback on this one.

Did you learn anything? Did you have fun? What do you think of Google Trends for Websites? Or other tools mentioned here? Would you have any other advice for Omniture, WebTrends and CoreMetrics? Should Omniture be scared of Google Analytics? :) What else would you do or look at?

Please share your feedback.

If you are using a modern web analytics tool (tag based or log based) it is quite likely that it is using cookies for tracking purposes.

In my conversations it is embarrassingly common to find a lot of FUD and confusion and lack of understanding (or appreciation of!) cookies and the role that they play in any analytics done on the web.

Hence my attempt at this simple easy to understand primer. If you are an Analyst or a Marketer or a Website Owner or a Website User it is critical that you read this short blog post - your data will make so much more sense after are done.

Why are cookies important?

Cookies, usually anonymously, allow the website owner to measure the number of Visits and the Unique Visitors to the website and hence understand the Customer’s website experience and segment visitors that are New to the site from those that are Returning.

That’s it.

No more and no less.

Lots of other tracking is possible without the use of cookies, they are not the be all and end all of visitor behavior tracking. Wipe that sweat off your forehead. Go get a cold glass of water to drink.

Let’s attack the rest of this complex issue in a few bite sized understandable chunks.

Transient vs. Persistent.

There are two types of cookies that the web analytics software will set when you visit a website. They are commonly called “Transient” and “Persistent” cookies. Some folks refer to them as “session” and “user” cookies respectively.

The job of the transient cookies is to help “sessionize” your experience on a website. Put simply, you are going to make a series of clicks and leave. That’s a session. The transient cookie helps group those clicks efficiently.

The transient cookie is “set” when you visit the site, it disappears when you leave.

The persistent cookie is set the first time when you visit the website, and it will remain there for the duration that the website determines. For example, Analytics cookies are typically 18 months but many other tools will use anything from 18 months to 18 years. Persistent cookies are there to help identify a unique browser to your website, in as much they are the closest thing to tracking a “person” / “unique visitor”.

The persistent cookie is on your browser until you either delete it, reinstall your browser or do other such things.

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It is important to note that almost always persistent cookies don't contain any PII - Personally Identifiable Information - data. They just have a random string of numbers or alphabets that only the company who set the cookie can read. For example here is a cookie that Webtrends.com just set on my browser as I visited www.webtrends.com: C8ctADY1LjU3LjI0NS4xMS00MTU3MTQwMTc2LjI5OTQ0NzE5AAAAAAAAAAACAAAAo
M0AAINghUgWYIVI.
I should see if I can mess with them by changing that cookie to COREMETRICSWILLALWAYSBEWATCHINGYOURSITE4LOVE+OMNITUREISGREATAND
INDEXTOOLSWINS!! :)
]

First Party vs. Third Party.

A “third party” cookie is set by, well, a third party when someone visits your site. So if www.omniture.com is using WebTrends as the web analytics tool of choice then when I visit omniture.com a cookie will be set on my machine under the www.Webtrends.com domain. On omniture.com a Webtrends.com cookie is considered a third party cookie.

[Omniture.com is actually setting cookies using .2o7.net which would make them third party cookies on that domain.]

In the good old days it was easier for the web analytics vendors to use third party cookies and they were rampant. But it was discovered that there were other players using these cookies in sub optimal ways. This lead to default internet browser settings that would reject third party cookies, and many other anti spyware and malware programs auto deleting them etc etc. Suffice it to say they have fallen out of favor, and are considered quite sub optimal for tracking “unique visitors”.

A “first party” cookie, hence, is set by the web analytics tool using the domain of the website itself. As an example when you visit www.coremetrics.com you’ll notice (if you have WASP!) that they are setting cookies using the domain data.coremetrics.com - which makes those cookies first party.

First party cookies are the preferred tool of choice for tracking “unique visitors” because they are deleted / rejected a lot less by any objective measure. This means, for example, they are a far superior at tracking repeat visits or new and returning visitor segments etc.

Another reason first party cookies are rejected a lot less is that much of the internet does not work if you don’t accept first party cookies. Email providers like hotmail (! :) or gmail.com, ecommerce websites like amazon.com or crutchfield.com, banks, even blogging platforms! They all require you to accept first party cookies.

Almost every single decent web analytics vendor now provides an easy ability for you to use first party cookies. Some like Google Analytics only offer the option of having first party cookies.

If you notice some initial push back from your vendor to use the easier-for-them third party option, do a little push back of your own. Insist on first party. Its good for your health.

Exception for Third Party Cookies.

There are some relevant uses of third party cookies. One of the most common is by ad serving platforms because that is the only way they can track a “unique visitor” across multiple websites. So even if that third party cookie gets blown away and rejected a lot more, they (you) really don’t have much of a choice. That’s just how the internet protocols work.

Here’s a example of how that works.

We saw that omniture.com is using .2o7.net third party cookies. After going to omniture.com I could go to ebay.com and then to nytimes.com. .2o7.net knows that I was at the Omniture site a little while back and then I went to eBay and then NYTimes.

Now as I am reading the latest Maureen Dowd column .2o7.net (if it was a ad serving platform) could serve me a ad for Omniture next to the Maureen Dowd column. Knowing I also went to eBay they could even give me a deal on Omniture in that ad! : )

This is of course just one example to illustrate the use of a third party cookie and why Atlas and DoubleClick and Yahoo and all the others use them (and provide value to their customers).

First party cookies can’t be “read” and “carried over” like the above scenario.

Does my choice (1st or 3rd) influence where my data is stored?

No.

The type of web analytics software you use determines that.

If you are using a ASP based solution (say NetInsight or Microsoft AdCenter Analytics or VisiStat) then both your first party or third party cookie data is stored in the data center of your application service provider (vendor).

If you are using a in-house solution (like ClickTracks or Urchin) then your data is stored in your own data center (regardless of what kind of cookie you use).

Cookie Deletion Rates.

It is important to remember cookie rejection is not the same as deletion. With rejection you don’t even accept (worsens tracking). With deletion you collect data for the session (visit) but tracking after that visit worsens.

Everyone wants to know cookie deletion rates (”help my web analytics data is crap!”). There is no “global standard”. Sadly I have never seen a study that was objective and not pushing the vested interests of the publisher (be it a company or a “analyst”).

It is also extremely extremely difficult for a “third party” to have the kind of access required to actual data that would help them develop anything close to a objective “standard”.

The biggest determining factors are your customers and their browser settings and software on their computer. And that can vary greatly from site to site.

My own personal experience across a number of ecommerce, support, and other corporate sites (excepting extremely “tech heavy audience” sites) has helped me come up with a “benchmark” of cookie deletion rates of 3% to 5% for first party cookies and 20% to 25% for third party cookies. They all tend to fall in that range.

FWIW.

If you want to know what the number is for you, I recommend putting in the sweat, blood and tears to measure it on your actual site. If it is important to you, it is important that you don’t just take someone’s word for it and proceed to evaluate your own web analytics data and get your own benchmark. I assure you that you are unique.

Do I have to use cookies?

The current generation of web analytics tools all use cookies to perform the core function of “accurately” compute Visits and Unique Visitors.

If you use cookies those numbers will be better (not perfect, see this post: Data Quality Sucks, Let’s Just Get Over It).

You will get a better understanding of metrics like Visits to Purchase or New and Returning Visitors or even Conversion Rates.

But if your company executives or, more likely, website customers have a preference for you not to use cookies then you don’t have to.

You won’t be able to measure some of the above Key Performance Indicators, but you can still get good value from the cookie-less data that you do collect. Top Visited Pages, Revenue, Referring Websites (URL’s), Search Engine Keywords and on and on and on.

Don’t let the fact that you don’t use cookies get in the way of being able to use the web analytics data in meaningful ways.

The data won’t be perfect but then again perfection is greatly overrated! (Chapter 13, Page 341 of my book.)

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There are analytics tools that allow you to use alternatives to cookies to compute Visits and Visitors. You can use user_agent_id's, combination of browser_id and operating system etc. See if your Management or Customers are ok with that. If yes, use those. If not, to stress again, the data you collect, anonymously, can still reveal insights of value.
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Is privacy important?

I know that sounds like the most obvious question in the world, with the most obvious answer in the world.

Yes. It is.

The primary function of your website is to be responsive to your customers. It is important to have a clear privacy policy, it is important to be transparent about what you are collecting (especially if you are collecting PII - personally identifiable information), and to educate your users.

Here’s my humble privacy policy (you’ll always find it in the footer).

Be transparent, there are few things more important than the trust of your customers.

Besides as I have stressed several times, even with what data you can collect (say you just have your raw server web logs and nothing else) it is possible to find insights. Nothing’s impossible for a Analysis Ninja!

That’s it.

You are now a graduate of Cookies 301. May the force be with you!

I would love to hear your feedback on this delightful and often beguiling topic. What do you think of cookies? What has worked for you? What did not? How have you overcome obstacles? Any tips for the rest of us?

I am sure you have stories you can’t wait to share. Please do.

Thanks.

PS:
Couple other related posts you might find interesting:

• Five “Ecosystem” Challenges for Web Analytics Vendors
• The 10 / 90 Rule for Magnificent Web Analytics Success
• How to Choose a Web Analytics Tool: A Radical Alternative
• Seven Steps to Creating a Data Driven Decision Making Culture